Top seed and favourite again

Another grand slam tournament is about to start and what's new? Nothing much really. Federer is once again favored to win a grand slam title, this one to be his 12th overall. Quite honestly, Federer winning a fourth consecutive US Open title seems to be the most reasonable prediction if one is to look at his performance in grand slams in the past three years: 14 consecutive semifinals and nine consecutive final appearances.

On the other hand, his performance this season has been rather shaky--that is, at least compared to his superhuman feats in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Having lost to Canas twice in March on the hard courts of Miami and Los Angeles and struggled against lesser players in other hard court tournaments, Federer may have to really slug it out this time around to defend his title, especially against those who have long been working hard to wrestle a title away from his grasp.

Of course, there has always been Rafael Nadal who has lately proven that he can play on the fast courts of Wimbledon and has one hard court title this year. As number two in the world, he'll always be on the other half of the draw from Federer so it's natural to hope for another Federer-Nadal final. Then there's Andy Roddick who's seeded to meet Federer in the quarterfinals. But with a 1-13 record against the Swiss and a game that has evolved just marginally over the past few years (compared at least to Nadal's), who's to say that the result will be different this time around?

If there is anything new, then it would be those players whose names have been added to the list of those who have the potential to upset Federer.

And one of them is the resurgent Lleyton Hewitt who now seems to be more of a threat than Roddick given that he nearly upset Federer in the semifinals of last week's Cincinnati Masters Series. With Federer's former coach Tony Roche in his corner, he may give Federer some trouble. Even more dangerous is the promising 20-year old Novak Djokovic, who as everyone knows by now defeated Roddick, Nadal and Federer on the way to a second Masters Series shield this year in Montreal. That kid has a solid game and has shown that he has the confidence to back it up as well. But then, Djokovic and Hewitt are all in the bottom half of the draw with Nadal and can only stand in Federer's way if they make it all the way to the final. So who else is there?

Included in Federer's half of the draw are hard hitters Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic and the talented but injured Andy Murray. But it is Australian Open 2006 finalist Marcos Baghdatis who I believe has the best chance of causing an upset in Federer's half of the draw. After all, he nearly did defeat Federer in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati last week. But for me, he does have the game to match Federer but simply lacks consistency and the stamina to outlast Federer in a best-of-five-set match.

Then they always say the best chance to beat Federer would come in the early rounds. Federer is drawn to meet qualifiers in his first two round matches. It does sound like an easy start for Federer but a qualifier can be dangerous too since Federer will not be familiar with his opponent's game. I expect though that while the qualifiers will feel they will have nothing to lose when they go up against the top seed, they will be too much in awe of the great man and consider it already an honor to appear on the same court as he.

Federer does seem to have a relatively easy draw as he had in Wimbledon this year. Again, this can work both ways: It may give him an easy path to the finals but may provide him little challenge and inadequate preparation for a showdown in the finals with the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Hewitt who await him in the bottom half of the draw. That five-set thriller with Nadal in the Wimbledon finals has proven that. But then again, as proven also by that victory over Nadal, Federer is even more formidable when it comes to grand slams, something which Blake pointed out after losing to Federer in Cincinnati.

So I expect that it will be Tiger Woods who will soon have to start keeping up with his buddy. (What else can I say? I'm a Federer fan. ;) )

P.S.
Sadly, I won't be able to watch any of the US Open matches on television this year. The local cable channel that has always provided full coverage of the US Open in the past years has strangely opted not to buy the rights to air the tournament this time around. Waaaaah! :(
Photo credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images for the USTA.